Copa America: Group Play Round-Up
By curt from July 11, 2004
Paraguayan teammates celebrate their July 8 win over Costa Rica.
Group A
There are still two games remaining in this group: Peru vs. Columbia and Venezuela vs. Bolivia.
Columbia is going to the quarter-final round no matter what happens.
Venezuela can't advance no matter what happens.
Peru needs a win or a draw against Columbia to advance.
If Peru loses and Bolivia wins they'll have the same number of points (4 each), and the goal differential will determine who advances. If Peru loses by one goal, Bolivia will need to win by three in order to advance. If Peru loses in a penalty kick shootout, Bolivia will need to win by four. Peru has scored 5 goals in two games, though, so Bolivia's got pretty slim odds to advance.
Group B
Group B also has two games left: Mexico vs. Ecuador and Argentina vs. Uruguay. Every team has a chance to advance (even if it's a slim one).
In order for Ecuador to advance, Argentina has to lose by four goals and Ecuador has to beat Mexico by seven goals. Ecuador lost to Argentina 6-1, so I don't feel bad about removing them from the equation and giving Mexico the W, thereby advancing them to the next round.
With that settled, Argentina needs to beat Uruguay to advance. Uruguay can get by with a win or a draw. Argentina lost to Mexico earlier and Uruguay tied with Mexico, so the advantage goes to Uruguay, but this game could go either way.
Group C
Group C looks a lot like A. The final two games are Brazil vs. Paraguay and Costa Rica vs. Chile. Brazil advances no matter what (big surprise), and there's no situation that will get Costa Rica to the quarter-finals.
That leaves Paraguay and Chile. If Paraguay wins or draws, they advance. In order for Chile to advance, Paraguay needs to lose by one goal and Chile needs to win by two. Chile is playing Costa Rica, so they could pull off a two-goal win. And with Brazil playing Paraguay, it's definitely within the realm of possibility for Paraguay to lose before the game goes to a shootout. Both Chile and Paraguay have a shot, we'll find out who advances after the matches on July 14.
PS: I've only recently begun to follow football, so my analyses are for entertainment purposes only. Please feel free to correct mine or offer your own in the comments.
<< | Posted on July 11, 2004 at 7:54 PM | >>
Ah, good point about matches in a draw. I kind of knew it, but forgot about it during parts of the analysis. And thanks for the Silverbacks tip! I'll definitely check out a game.
Posted by curt @ July 12, 2004 2:02 PM
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Great summary Curt. The only thing I would point out is that in the beginning stage of the tournament (group play) a tied game at the end of regulation will remain a tie. Shootouts only begin in the next stage of the competition.
Or maybe I just misread what you typed up. Anyway, glad to see you becoming a true fan. Your next step is to attend an Atlanta Silverbacks match:
http://www.atlantasilverbacks.com/main/index.php
Posted by J_John @ July 12, 2004 12:04 AM