Moves Don't Matter
It's been a while since we took a look at UHXFBL 3 - Still Fantaseain', and for all the fans out there I apologize. We're now in week seven and the rankings are looking more interesting:
Thanks to Swamp Champ manager Josh Berezin for the screenshot.
14 more weeks to go. Even if the Castle Doozers were to win all 14 of those matchups they would still fall behind Weird Beard. I don't think it's a stretch to predict that the bottom four in week 7 are all in serious trouble.
The middle four are all fighting it out for those bottom two playoff spots while the top four use their various strategies to lock in their dominant position. The top two spots have a real advantage in that they both get a bye in the first week (Mar 26 - Apr 1) of the Championship, so there is a lot at stake.
Speaking of strategies you can see that there is no clear advantage to making moves. The KellyJellyRolls are sitting in 2nd place and have made only a single change to their roster, while rising fast right below them is Loopahoopahs with an amazing 35 moves!
I suspect that the busy holiday season is going to keep some people away from their roster and that could really affect what happens after Sunday.
The Ultimate Fantasy has also been on a bit of hiatus, but if we go back and check the scores the result is that Curt's South by North team has a total of 154 points which is just barely above average. My own Meta Fantasy Inc. just barely have pulled ahead with 155 points, thanks to my record breaking Week 4 score of 31!
Have a hot tip or want to talk some trash? Email kmikeym@kmikeym.com.
The number of moves may not be in themselves predictive, but they do very much matter, my nattering nabob friend.
In this (fantasy) world, you are wither blessed with good fortune when your team is born, or you compensate with grit and determination.
Kelly Jelly deserves a tip o' da hat for a great draft and the good fortune to not have serious injuries, but the rest of the teams (especially the bottom four) ought to be making things happen on the fantasyland court.
Sincerely,
Loopahoopahs management, Inc.
(#1 in your hearts, soon to be #2 on the charts.)
I didn't mean to imply that moves don't matter at all, just that they don't represent a clearly superior strategy. This surprised me.
Perhaps KJL is an anomaly? Or maybe it's just too soon to predict this sort of thing...
Clearly if you are in the bottom you need to TAKE ACTION. Whatever your strategy is, it's not working!
I don't think you can win in a competitive league without making some moves.
Also, Castle Doozers could finish first. What you aren't realizing is that you could possibly get 10 points every week. When you win it isn't always just 6-4.
I expect there to be a lot of movement. Swamp Champ will rise. The Bobby Goulds are really improving every week.